UFLEX Ltd

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the UFlex Limited Q3 FY2024 results conference call hosted by Dolat Capital. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing "*" then "0" on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr.

Sachin Bobade from Dolat Capital. Thank you, and over to you, Sir.

Good evening everyone. On behalf of Dolat Capital, I welcome you all to the Q3 FY2024 earnings conference call of UFlex Limited. I hope you all and your family members are staying safe and healthy. From the management side, we have with us, Mr. Rajesh Bhatia, Group President and Chief Financial Officer and Mr. Surajit Pal, Vice President, Investor Relations. Now, I hand the floor over to the management for their opening remarks, and then we would have a question & answer session. Over to you, Sir.

Thank you Sachin. This is Surajit. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today for the Q3 FY2024 earnings conference call of UFlex Limited. We will start with a brief statement from Mr. Rajesh Bhatia, Group President and CFO, following which we will open the forum for the interactive question & answer session.

Before we begin this call, I would like to quickly remind everybody that anything that we say during this call that refers to our outlook for the future is a forward-looking statement that must be taken in the context of the risk that we face. With this, I would now request Mr. Rajesh Bhatia, Group President, and CFO, to make his opening remarks. Over to you, Sir.

Good afternoon, everyone. A very warm welcome to all of you to the UFlex Q3 FY2024 earnings conference call. I trust all of you had the opportunity to go through the earnings release and the results presentation already shared with you. I would initiate the call by briefly talking to you through the key highlights for the quarter. And then we can follow it up with any questions that you may have. I will try to do that to the best of my knowledge and ability.

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Broadly, I would say that this is a quarter which is in continuation of the last quarter.

So, a reasonably healthy performance backed by improvement in the sales volume, both in the packaging as well as in the packaging films and we have consolidated EBITDA margins, operating EBITDA margins have been reasonable. Things could have been a bit better, but there is a price pressure due to certain oversupply situation in India. But despite that, our overall consolidated sales volume this quarter, we posted a growth of 5.8% YoY of which 6.5% comes from the films business and 3.6% comes from the packaging business.

On a standalone basis, the overall sales volume increased 13.3% on a YoY basis. The standalone packaging films had 25% YoY volume growth post commissioning of our Dharwad facility. And as I said that the packaging film industry continues to be under the pricing pressure because of the oversupply situation currently and that has impacted the margins in that particular business segment. But the other business segments, especially on the standalone, which is flexible packaging, which is aseptic packaging, holographic films, and other substrates like chemicals and adhesives have all done well. And that is where despite the pricing and the margin pressure in the packaging film business in India, we have maintained our profitability. And once the margins improve, I think we will be looking at a much healthier profitability with the further increase in the capacity of aseptic films later in FY25.

The consolidated net revenue stood at Rs. 3,345 crores. There has been QoQ and YoY decrease, but that is more related to the raw material pricing. Overall, the operational EBITDA, I would say or the adjusted EBITDA, at about Rs. 426 crores in the quarter is 12.7% EBITDA margin. There's a slight improvement both on QoQ as well as on a YoY basis. This quarter, again, we have been hit by the currency devaluation in Nigeria. As we have said, Nigeria had migrated to market-driven exchange rates in June 2023, and this quarter again they had devaluation which had impacted us by about Rs. 125 crores this quarter. Total impact of the devaluation and the derivative losses is about Rs. 158 crores in this quarter, which are one-off kind. I think Egypt, as we have said that in the last couple of years, Egypt and Nigeria continue to be the sensitive areas from an exchange perspective. And we are seeing that every 3 to 6 months, there are devaluations carried out by the central bank. As a result, when we reinstate our balance sheet with the revised exchange rates, I think we are looking at those losses

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coming and hitting us. And this quarter, the impact of these losses is about Rs. 158 crores.

Overall, from an operational perspective, it's been a reasonably good quarter. Even liquid packaging, we had a volume growth of about 8.5% YoY and the revenue growth of about 12.7% as well. Notably, even in Nigeria, the production volume is up 60% on a YoY basis. In Mexico, again, America was one of the regions which was again impacted by the fiscal and the low demand emanating therefrom. This quarter, we have done much better. The Mexico production is up about almost double of what we had in the same period of last year. Similarly, even in some of the other locations also like Dubai and India, we have seen a volume growth. There has been a de-growth in Europe as it continues to be an area which is impacted because of the consumer sentiment. And given the Russia-Ukraine war impact on the energy as well as the higher interest costs leading to the consumer demand getting impacted in Europe.

So, we have seen on a YoY basis a de-growth in our packaging films volume in that territory. But as I said that more than that, we made up for that in Nigeria, in Mexico, in India, and Dubai, and other territories that are quite stable. Having said that, in November end, we had the incident of Red Sea and with that, there is again uncertainty hovering around the supply chain disruptions which are now quite evident. The freight prices have increased; the mandatory insurance has come into play. So, there is an increased cost as well as the increased time taken for exports into Europe which has again brought to the forefront the need for more reliable local sourcing, which helps UFlex.

On a separate note, the exports this quarter from India from a standalone balance sheet are also up about 13% close to about Rs. 400 crores. Overall, I would say a decent quarter, margins have been maintained, the volumes have grown. And we are cautiously optimistic of a sharper recovery in the next few quarters. We know for sure that the other businesses such as aseptic packaging, once we complete the bottlenecking to take the capacity to 12 billion packs, will definitely contribute towards our additional growth. But also, we are looking at completing our backward integration facility in the PET chips in Panipat in this quarter as well as in Egypt in between Q2 and Q3 of next year. Given that it will add more reliability to raw material availability, there will be a pricing benefit as well, which will ultimately culminate into

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better margins for the packaging films business overall. And from India, we have already started the trial runs for our PET chips plant, which makes PET chips for the BOPET films. This plant also has the facility to make PET chips for the bottle grade for which the activities are still being completed. Hopefully, by the end of this fiscal, the entire facility will be up and running. That is in a nutshell the summary of the operations for the quarter. The net debt for this quarter stood at about Rs. 5,200 crores. This quarter, there has been an impact of Rs. 60 crores because of the exchange devaluation on the debt numbers vis-a-vis the last quarter. And the rest of the debt is added for the PET chips plant in India, Egypt, as well as our debottlenecking of the aseptic packaging facility at Sanand. That's all from my side in terms of the performance and the highlights for the quarter. With this, I open the forum for any questions that you may have, and we will try to address your inquiries and your questions as much as possible.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question & answer session. The first question is from the line of Chirag Singhal from First Water Fund. Please go ahead.

Sir, my first question is on Nigeria. You mentioned that the volumes have grown 60% on a YoY basis. What was the utilization in Q3? About 70%.

Sir, how much time do you feel it will take to ramp up to full capacity going forward?

And I think last time you mentioned that the import duties have been raised to close to 30% vis-a-vis what it used to be earlier. So, broadly, shouldn't that have a positive impact on the volumes? Within how many quarters you feel we should be able to reach 100% in Nigeria?

We will look at for the time being at about 75% to 80% because there is an opportunity and because the America markets have come in a very strong way. The combined capacity in Mexico as well as in the US may not be sufficient. There are opportunities to export from Nigeria. It depends on that. If that happens, I think the volumes will increase. But given the size of the market in Nigeria as well as in the ECOWAS region, I think the current level of utilization is what we have in mind. We

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will see as to how America pans out in this quarter and in the next quarter. As I said, Mexico has seen 100% growth in the volumes in this quarter on a YoY basis. Hopefully, if there are opportunities to sell more in America, then there is an opportunity to sell more from Nigeria into that market.

This 75% to 80% is the current utilization or this is something that you are seeing in the near future? 70% is around what we are looking at on a conservative basis, but 80% to 85% is what we are looking at if there are opportunities in America to export from Nigeria.

Currently, what is the total demand of BOPET in Nigeria? And out of 70% production, how much of it is sold in Nigeria and how much is sold in ECOWAS? And how much is exported to other countries than ECOWAS?

We will not be comfortable to share so much insight into the business and overall levels is what we can indicate, but within Nigeria or ECOWAS or other adjoining countries, we would not like to share that business.

But can you give a broad breakup as to what is that?

You must take it that the current utilization, whatever is there, is entirely catering to that region only. Within Nigeria? Nigeria and ECOWAS those areas.

My second question is on the payback time for the PCR line in Egypt. What is the CAPEX that we spent on this? And what is the payback period that you are looking for?

I think we spent about $13 million on this plant; $13 million or $15 million in that range. And we're looking at about 3 years' payback.

I believe we also set up a PCR line in Mexico as well in the past?

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Yes, in Mexico, we had set up in the past.

What was the payback over there? What has been the outcome so far?

I think the same payback was there, but as we said, the America markets also went in for a tailspin. So, there, currently the utilization levels are low for only the PCR markets. PCR films is a value addition, but the other way to look at that also is given that we import all our raw materials, especially the PET resin, we are now looking at exploring blending this with our existing to increase the utilization and also the fact that Egypt is currency sensitive area and the dollar availability and the exchange rate; so, this helps as a local available raw material for which you incur the costs in the Egyptian pound only. So, I think Egypt will be a faster traction. When we had planned Mexico, we had the America markets in mind for value-added PCR product. But there the utilization levels are currently not so good.

What are the utilization levels in Mexico for the PCR line? Around 35%.

But in Egypt, you are expecting a faster ramp-up?

In Egypt, we are looking at this as a substitute to the virgin raw material.

My next question is on the expansion. Are we on track with our Asepto debottlenecking and the PET chips expansions in India and in Egypt?

We will complete Aseptic expansion in India between Q2 and Q3 of FY25. And on the PET chips front?

We will complete the PET chips plant in India in March and in Egypt between Q2 to Q3 of FY25. In India, in the current quarter and Egypt in Q2-Q3 of FY25.

Sir, you mentioned that in Mexico, we have doubled our volumes on a YoY basis during the last quarter. But in Mexico, we were already running at almost 100% for

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the last maybe 1 or 2 years? Was the last quarter weak plus there was any debottlenecking? What is the utilization in Mexico for Q3? Mexico utilization in Q3 is 92%.

So, basically, the last quarter was very weak, I think Q3 FY23 was very weak. But overall, we were doing close to 100% in Mexico? Was there anything exceptional during the last year Q3?

More than a year back because there has been a volume drop in the last fiscal and the first 6 months of the current year as well.

Broadly, what's your assessment on the spreads? In the current quarter and let's say going forward, how are you seeing spreads in India especially and the overseas regions where the spreads are weak relatively?

Overseas regions, the spreads are before you in terms of consolidated minus India balance sheet. They vary from market to market, so very difficult to give you one number, but the overall pattern can be seen from total consolidated minus India business, which gives you a flavor of the margins in the packaging films business in the offshore markets. In India, in the packaging films, currently everybody is operating at a loss. And that has been the trend for the last 2 quarters and maybe marginally at an EBITDA positive, but overall, I don't think so there is anybody who is making any money at PAT level in the packaging films. This is in context to BOPET or both?

Both combined, I am saying. I am not giving one particular segment. BOPET is slightly more distressed, and BOPP is slightly better.

We will move on to the next question that is from the line of Nishant Shah from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.

My question is, are there any plans to raise the funds via sale of assets or the QIP?

Because the EBITDA level is low, and the debt is on the increasing mode.

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No, there are currently no plans to raise any equity through QIP or any other means.

So, how are you planning to pare down the debt?

Whatever is the debt, it will be paid through the cash generation from the normal business operations. We are generating enough cash to pay whatever is the annual debt servicing. There is no issue with that.

Are there plans to make it to a debt-free company?

I have been saying that there are amortizations which we keep on paying and then there are new plans for the CAPEX, which are made depending on the markets. So, whatever is the amortization annually, the debt will be paid to those levels only. And as and when there are new investment plans, we will obviously inform the market.

Is it possible to give us color on the breakup of sales and profitability on the packaging films whether it is India or outside India?

I already said that outside India can be easily derived. From consolidated numbers, if you reduce the India numbers, that is the packaging because overseas, it's only the packaging films business. If we have an EBITDA of Rs. 426 crores, out of which Rs. 171 crores are India. So, overseas business is generating an EBITDA of Rs. 255 crores.

How are we placed versus the peers, basically?

I think all of them are having the same issue given that there is an oversupply situation and then we had an additional situation emanating from the Russia-Ukraine war which led to tepid consumer demand in Europe. The US, as the Fiscal Act was increasing the interest rates and taking away the excess liquidity from the market, the consumer demand got impacted since a year and a half. When the capacities also came at around the same time, that led to lower demand, higher supply, and lower raw material prices. And that led to ultimately the fall in the margin realizations and the margins. But as I said, the America demand is robust in this quarter. America plant has achieved a capacity utilization of 100%. The Mexico plant has achieved capacity utilization of 92%. So, America markets are back. Europe continues to be underperforming. From 1st of January in Europe, as the energy prices have now been

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cut, we must see how that impacts the consumer sentiment and if the purchasing power comes back.

When are you expecting to get normalized if it gets normalized?

I think this question has to be addressed in 2 accounts. One is the demand side in Europe. Let's look at the next 2 quarters before we make more firm statements. The other side is on the margin side, it is the oversupply situation. Now, the oversupply situation is surely going to take some time to get addressed. Overall, even if Europe gets corrected in terms of its demand, that will impact the prices and the margins a bit, but if you see today, November onwards now, we have this Red Sea crisis whereby shipments from India, Southeast Asia to Europe are getting impacted by way of longer voyages and higher freight costs. That is bringing in the local sourcing back because the customer wants reliability of the supply chain. I think the local plants like ours with the Red Sea crisis will do better as we did better in the COVID times when we have seen the supply chain disruptions. Overall, let's wait for the next 2 quarters before we give more firm guidance as to the state of affairs in the European markets.

In America, we have already said that we are already at about 100% capacity utilization at our 2 plants. That's where we are looking at expanding that market in the current and the next quarters and see possibilities of exports from Nigeria, where we have a capacity to serve those markets, additional volumes in America.

The next question is from the line of Kaushik Poddar from KB Capital Markets Private Limited. Please go ahead.

Two things; one is the margin and the second is debt. Do you think the margin will remain around say – you have called out that 2 quarters are required to see how things will work out, but still, we can maintain that 12% margin? And secondly, on the debt front, do you think the debt peeking out in the second quarter of next year?

The margins; clearly, we have seen the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, and 3rd quarter are getting marginally better. In the current quarter, we love to see improvement over the current quarter's margins also but it's still too early and Red Sea impact is to be assessed. But if there is a positive impact on our business because of the Red Sea crisis, we will see better margins. The debt levels, you are right that we will see in

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FY25, the debt will peak out because some of the projects are getting commissioned in Q3. So, the debt will peak out in FY25.

The debt level peeking out will be around Rs. 5,500 crores or it can be more?

It is right now at about Rs. 5,250 crores debt. That's net debt, right?

That is the net debt. I think we can look at about Rs. 500 crores more in that.

So, Rs. 5,700 crores or Rs. 5,800 crores?

Yes, this is a new debt which will be added, but then there will be amortization of the existing debt also. So, probably, the number wouldn't be beyond Rs. 5,500 crores. But let's see.

Tetra Pak, of course, is the brand name that belongs to your competitor, but that expansion will come on stream in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of the next financial year or when will it come on stream?

The season starts in January. So, whether it happens in Q2 or happens at the end of Q3, it does not make a difference. But before the next season, we will hit the market with it.

And the capacity will go up from what quantum to what quantum?

From 7 billion packs per annum to 12 billion packs per annum. That's a substantial expansion.

The next question is from the line of Miraj from Arihant Capital. Please go ahead.

I just wanted a couple of clarifications. First thing, do we look at contribution margins over here? Because I think that is what is followed in the industry where from the revenues, we subtract the cost of goods sold and the power and fuels. If we were to

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look at those figures, is there any improvement on the contribution margins that we are looking over here or are we still negative in the contribution margin territory?

No, contribution margins, we are not negative.

I believe that currently the entire industry is operating at below historical lows. Is that the right understanding? I cannot say historical lows. I'm sorry, historical average.

Yes, it's lower than the historical average; you are right.

To see the view over here, do we expect the recovery to happen in the next 4 to 6 months above historical average?

We will have to really see market by market and not necessarily true for all the markets. India is an oversupply zone certainly. So, this market will remain under pressure, but the global markets are not fully linked to what India is. So, they'll behave on their own depending on their own demand supply and costing dynamics.

What would be the contribution margins for India right now?

We are not sharing details at that particular level for a particular business segment, but overall if you see, the COGS is about 53.3% of the revenue.

In terms of per ton, we don't share the figures? No, we don't share the figures.

On the India front, what kind of capacities are we seeing that are coming in, in FY25?

Is there substantial capacity coming in, or is it slowed down because already we are in an oversupply zone?

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In India, the BOPET capacities almost all of them have now been completed. On the BOPP side FY25 to FY26, there may be fresh capacity additions, but on the PET side, it is more or less done.

I believe the current utilization in this industry on an average is close to 65% to 70%.

Please correct me if I am wrong about this figure. Do we expect that given the industry demand by, let's say, FY26 end, the utilizations will be at optimum level in the current capacity?

In the India market, the demand growth is at least 10% to 12% which is very healthy.

The overcapacity this time, slight bunching has happened. That is why we are seeing this phenomenon. But overall, it should take a couple of years before the demand supply mismatch should get over.

And just one last thing. In Egypt, we started our post-consumer recycling facilities for the rPET flakes. That is to substitute the virgin raw material. Can you just highlight what is the pricing differential that we will gain the benefit of? About 5% to 7%.

It will be the same figure that will be reflecting in our EBITDA margin? So, I will have an improvement of 5% to 7% in my EBITDA margins as well because of this.

No, it will not be fully because we are not going to be fully self-sufficient in our raw material requirements with this plant. This makes only about 1,200 tons per month.

And what is the requirement for us over there?

The requirements would be much larger, maybe 3 times of this.

Any plans to bring this facility to our India facility?

India already has this facility in a much smaller way, which was more like a pilot plant here. But India, we are not looking at expanding this facility. The opportunity with the vision with which these facilities were to be set up was to sell using the recycled raw material, the BOPET film. Now, the market's going into the tailspin. So, that market

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has also got impacted and that is where we said that we were looking at selling using this film to make the BOPET film from the PCR chips. Now, that market is also likely to become much better as the companies are becoming more conscious about using the recycled content. And on that basis, there is a huge opportunity to make much higher return as compared to using the virgin raw material. And with that intent only, we had set up this plant in Mexico to cater to the US markets where there was a requirement for these recycled raw material films. But given that the market overall took a tailspin, Egypt when we planned, because in Egypt, we must import all the raw material or pay the import parity price for our raw material and with the exchange being the way it is, you buy bottles locally, you process them to make the PET chips.

So, the raw material is available locally for this product and that's where you will get the differential margin in this.

The next question is from the line of Harsh Shah from Dimensional Securities. Please go ahead.

Just one question on the spreads and realization. If I look at our spreads, they have come down from around Rs. 1 lakh per ton to Rs. 90,000 per ton, both in domestic as well as overseas business. So, I just wanted to get a sense that by when do we expect our spreads to recover back to the normalized level, in absolute terms? I understand that you are talking about oversupply in India as well as overseas markets. I just wanted to get a sense of what is the kind of spread that we are looking to work with.

Since the raw material prices have come down, do we expect to recover our spreads as well?

Given the oversupply situation, if the raw material prices are falling, the selling prices are also falling in the same manner, which means that your spreads are remaining the same. The raw material price benefit is not being retained by the industry, but it is being passed on to the customers. Having said that, the normal levels would be that your EBITDA margin on an overall basis should be in the range of about 14.5% to 15% which currently is about 12.5% range. This gap of 3% is what must get corrected, and it will get corrected with improvement in the European sentiments. It will get corrected with the demand supply equilibrium becoming better in India. And for us,

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there is another opportunity to make it better when we start using our own PET chips raw material in India and in Egypt.

When our backward-integrated plant for PET chips gets commercialized, when do we expect the benefits to trickle down in the margins? I assume the priority is to ensure the availability. Or will it start saving us cost from day 1 itself?

The cost saving will also be if not from quarter 1, it will happen from quarter 2, as the costs stabilize. There may be some extra costs when you start the plant, which is a matter of 1 or 2 quarters at the best to make it normalized. So, not much difference between the starting and the plant reaping the benefit of the lower cost of raw material for your plants.

The next question is from the line of Chirag Singhal from First Water Fund. Please go ahead.

Sir, what is the CAPEX for FY25 and current fiscal as well?

We are looking at FY25 including the PET chips resin and the normal CAPEX as well as the residual to be done on which should be about $100 million.

This includes Rs. 140 crores to Rs. 150 crores of maintenance CAPEX that you incur every year?

No, that will be extra. We are talking about the residual to be done in India, PET chips in Egypt, debottlenecking in aseptic packaging, as well as certain other sort of.

Sir, how much is the residual CAPEX in both the PET chips plants which will come in FY25? About Rs. 150 crores.

This is the total across the 2 plants, which is the residual CAPEX?

Because the main thing is the plant and machinery which hasn't come, so the main CAPEX will be there in FY25 only.

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Yes, but my question is, this Rs. 150 crores that you just said, this is the total across all the 2 plants, right? The aseptic expansion debottlenecking.

And what about the PET chips residual CAPEX, total for both the plants?

Chips in Egypt is $70 million in FY25 and the residual of the PET chips in India should be about $20 million to $25 million.

So, basically $100 million is the growth CAPEX and then you are saying the maintenance CAPEX will be over and above this? Yes.

And what is the CAPEX for FY24, the current fiscal? It's given in the presentation.

Including the Q4, what is your guidance for the full year? Rs. 1,004 crores.

We will move on to the next question that is from the line of Miraj from Arihant Capital. Please go ahead.

There are 2 things that I wanted to understand from the last question only that we spoke. You mentioned that the requirement for recycled PET chips is much higher in India, and because of that, you had put up a pilot facility. I believe, from my understanding about the market right now, there is still demand for the recycled PET chips and the difference is significant as well. So, why are we not doing this in India?

I said that the basic need for the PET chips setting up the PCR plant was to sell the PCR grade PET films which give you an accretive margin. It was not intended to replace the virgin raw material with this because a couple of years ago, when the PET chip prices were very high, the raw material prices were much higher than what they are today, the margins for buying the old PET chips and converting that into the PET

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chips resin was much higher. But today, when the virgin raw material prices have also come down drastically, the margins have shrunk. And margins depend on region to region with respect to the availability of the PET bottles and the pricing of the PET bottle because that also gets impacted by the virgin raw material prices but up to a very limited extent only because these are rag pickers picking up the bottles, and then through that process, you get the bottles for the processing at your plant. There the margins, the opportunity to get a lower pricing is not much. So, it depends on time to time. Today, when the raw material prices are down, this delta is not there in certain markets and is there in certain markets. It’s an evolving situation. But as I said, the prime motive was not to replace it with the virgin raw material. The prime motive was to make a value-added film with this and sell that film at a premium to the virgin raw material. It will happen over time, which will happen. Unfortunately, the markets went into a tailspin, and markets like Europe and America will be the leaders in terms of the PCR film demand coming.

If I were to just understand it in a different manner, it is not economically feasible to put this facility or increase in India. Is that right?

Today, it may not be, but at some time, it may be. As I said, today the raw material prices are also at the low end. Today, the virgin raw material may be cheaper than PCR-PET chips.

The second thing is in the Egypt facility of PCR that we have, I just wanted to clarify if the price differential between virgin and recycled is 5% or the margin difference is 5%.

The raw material cost differential may be 5%.

Let's say if my virgin is coming at Rs. 100 per kilo, this would be Rs. 95 per kilo. Yes.

As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.

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Thank you once again, ladies and gentlemen, for the engaging questions. We will soon have the transcript of this call on our website www.uflexltd.com. We look forward to speaking to you again in the coming quarter. Thank you and have a great day.

Ladies and gentlemen, we thank the management for this call. And on behalf of Dolat Capital, that concludes this conference call. We thank you for joining us. And you may now disconnect your lines.

(This document has been edited for readability purpose)

Mr. Surajit Pal, Vice President, Head of Investor Relations Mr. Manoj Pandey

A - 107 - 108, Sector - IV, Noida - 201301 (U.P.), India